Wednesday, 20 April 2011

Finnish Elections

Some Elk's Street followers have been in touch about the Finnish election result, which has received widespread international coverage following the strong showing of the nationalist True Finns party. So, here is Elk's Street's analysis of what happened.

First, some background. Finland has a proportional representation system and is traditionally led by a majority coalition. The main players are:
In brackets in the list above is the number of seats each party gained in last Sunday's election.


So who are the True Finns?

In Elk's Street's view, they are a populist, anti-EU, anti-immigrant, socially-conservative, economically-socialist grouping led by an outspoken leader, Timo Soini, who is described as charismatic, although would be better described as having a good grasp of rhetoric and a colourful turn of phrase.


Since Finland is a small country in an obscure corner of Europe, why was their election success the subject of international comment?


The answer is because of the economic troubles of certain EU states, in this case Portugal, which is in need of economic help from the EU. The True Finns are anti-EU and against bailouts for 'profligate' southern Euro states. Portugal is part of the Euro zone, and if the economic troubles of Portugal are not sorted out, the effects will be felt by all the Euro nations, including economic powerhouse, Germany. The problem is that EU agreement on the bailout must be unanimous among all Euro nations, and in Finland's case, the issue must go before the Finnish parliament. The fear among scaredy-cat economists is that if the Finnish parliament votes against the bailout, the bailout package founders, Portugal defaults on its loans, and the economic world ends as we know it.

Hmmpf... says Elk's Street, who is old enough to remember the IMF bailout of the UK in 1975 and the excitement of shopping by candlelight during the Three Day Week, not to mention Grossmami and Grosspapi bringing sugar and toilet paper on their visits from Switzerland because of shortages in the UK.


Policies and values

The True Finns have a truly incoherent set of policies and values. So, how is one to work out what is going on. The Finnish broadsheet, Helsingin Sanomat, Finland's only truly national paper, has produced a nice interactive graphic of the values of the various members of the new Finnish parliament, which helps explain what is going on. (HS has some news in English here.)

The interactive graphic looks like the image below, and to use it you need to click here. Everything is in Finnish, but have no fear, an explanation is given below.




Interactive Graphic Explanation

The graphic places the views of the members of the Finnish parliament on two axes - the horizontal axis is political orientation, left to right, and the vertical axis is social orientation, conservative (top) to liberal (bottom). The parties are colour-coded, and each party's sector is bounded by the views of its most extreme member on each axis.

The colour coding is; blue - National Coalition Party, yellow - True Finns, red - Social Democratic Party, pink- Centre Party, green - Green League, orange - Christian Democrats, dark orange - Left Alliance, and pale blue - Swedish People's Party.

The easiest way to see where the MPs stand is to do the following. First go to the right column and uncheck the parties by clicking on the "Tyhjennä valinnat"button ("Clear preferences") underneath the heading "Valitse puolueet" ("Choose the parties). Then add the parties one by one by checking the relevant box.

A word of warning - the positions were decided based on answers given by candidates for parliament before the election, so the whole truth might not have been told. Also, the definitions of what is left/right and conservative/liberal are decided by Helsingin Sanomat, which describes itself as politically-independent and non-aligned but is, in Elk's Street's opinion, right of centre and Helsinki- and urban-centric.


What does the graphic show?

Firstly, the True Finns cover a large spectrum of opinions, likely to be a source of trouble in the future, and their leader is on the extreme of his party. (Hovering the mouse over a point gives the name of each MP.) The speculated coalition of SDP, True Finns, and National Coalition (dubbed the"blue-redneck coalition") has such a divergence of opinion that a stable government might be difficult to achieve, giving rise to speculation that Finland might face the unusual situation of a parliament not lasting the full term. The Swedish People's Party might be invited into the government to keep the National Coalition company on the right, but the anti-Swedish views of the True Finns (they want to remove mandatory Swedish study in schools, among other anti-minority policies) might make things difficult. All in all, the immediate future looks uncertain.


Who voted for the True Finns?

The True Finns is a protest movement that picked up votes from the disenchanted and the economically disenfranchised. In recent years, Finland has gone through a Thatcherite transformation, leading to a great increase in inequality. Finland's post-war success has stemmed from consensus that all groups in Finnish society must make sacrifices for the good of the country as a whole (a point emphasised until very recently by the close proximity of a paranoid superpower, the Soviet Union). This consensus has been broken, in the name of globalisation and economic liberalism, leading to fractures in Finnish society and the feeling that the many make sacrifices while an elite fill their boots. True Finns voters are; the losers from the above-mentioned changes, those fearful of becoming losers, and those with very conservative views feeling threatened by changes in society.

Thus the party picked up votes from the rural areas, (reasons - a feeling that the rural areas are being ignored by a metropolitan elite, and the hardships of EU-sanctioned agricultural policies and economic globalisation), votes from areas with heavy industry (reason - large companies simply shutting down factories and moving them to low cost countries, or threatening to do so as a way of driving down pay and benefits), the working class, pensioners and the poor (reason - the running down of the welfare state in favour of private companies; state healthcare provision deteriorates because the elite use private services so have no stake in maintaining standards in the state sector, and state pensions and benefits have been stagnant for years), which makes about 20% of the population.


The question people are asking is how will this effect Elk's Street?

Forecasting is difficult, particularly forecasting the future! The most immediate effect will be a change in the terms of debate in society, with intolerant, anti-minority, anti-foreigner views being much more permissible. Economically, the changes might not be very great because Finland is a small fish in a big Euro pond; if Finland still had its own currency, the Markka, it would have collapsed by now. In the longer-term it is difficult to foresee what will happen. The cracks in Finnish society might widen still further, leading to greater confrontation. The True Finns might be just a flash-in-the-pan, and their success merely the kind of thing enjoyed by Vennamo in the late1960s. Not being a True Finns fan, I would describe Soini as a small dog with a loud bark. More worrying is what might happen after Soini; what shadowy figures with truly frightening views are lurking around?


Are True Finns truly Finnish?

It should be remembered that the party polled less than 20% of the popular vote. The name of the party is interesting. In Finnish, they are called Perussuomalaiset, which translated directly means 'basic Finns'. The Swedish name of the party is Sannfinländarna. The English name is a translation of the Swedish name, not the Finnish name, ironic for a party that is so anti-Swedish. In view of their proposed policies, perhaps they should change their English title from a translation of the Swedish to a translation of the Finnish. "Basic Finns" does not have such a good ring to it, but using a synonym of basic gives a really catchy and apt title, "Primitive Finns."

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